If we want global warming to stay below 2°C, global emissions of greenhouse gases need to decline extremely rapidly after 2015, and reach essentially zero by 2050. This is the dire message of a new synthesis of the latest science on climate change, environment and development.

The new synthesis, "A Copenhagen Prognosis: towards a safe climate future, a synthesis of the latest science on climate change, environment and development", was launched at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen on Wednesday, 16 December.  Compiled by Stockholm Environment Institute, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), the new report delivers a dire message to the politicians in Copenhagen:

- Based on the available carbon budget, and if we are to have a good (75 per cent) chance for warming to stay below 2°C, global GHG emissions would almost certainly need to decline extremely rapidly after 2015, and reach essentially zero by midcentury.

- There is no evidence suggesting it is impossible to rise to this challenge. To the contrary, the growing body of analytical work examining such scenarios at the global and regional level suggest it is not only technically feasible but also economically affordable, even profitable.

Moreover, the Copenhagen Prognosis clearly states that the climate challenge is not only a challenge of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases:

- As negative environmental pressures on the biosphere continue to grow, the final battle ground over avoiding human-induced warming that exceeds 2°C will shift from the current focus on reducing CO2 emissions, to the sustainable management of land, water and biodiversity in the world’s ecosystems

Donwload the new synthesis here (pdf, 1.1 MB)